SAWG 4/4/22 - CIMView

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SAWG 4/4/22

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

The April SAWG had many interesting presentations; ERCOT (Calvin Opheim) gave a refresher on the Mid Term Load Forecasts, ERCOT (Dan Mantena) presented a new interactive dashboard that examines the completion rate of named CDR resources, ERCOT (Pete Warnken) talked about the planned changes for the SARA report (monthly frequency, probabilistic assessment, interactive dashboard), the planned Effective Load Carrying Capacity study to get ERCOT more familiar with ELCC concepts, the planned move to a zonal reliability study model (as opposed to the current single zone model), and the plan to move forward with the Reserve Margin Study and the Cost of New Entry (CONE) study, both of which had been put on pause.  ERCOT (Clayton Stice) also gave the annual report on distributed generation (3GW).



  • ERCOT (Calvin Opheim) reviewed the Mid Term Load Forecast with a presentation.  An interesting not from the presentation, the 50th percentile load forecast is still available as the “E” and “E1” forecasts in the “Seven-Day Load by Model and Weather Zone” and “Seven-Day Load Forecast by Model and Study Area”  Calvin also compared the load forecasts for the two winter storms in February, the one early in the month and the one later in the month.
  • ERCOT (Dan Mantena) has developed an interactive dashboard that lets you look at the success rate (did they actually become commercial) of resources that were published as future resources in the Capacity, Demand, and Reserves chart. 
  • ERCOT (Pete Warnken) gave a presentation on possible/likely changes in the SARA reports going forward.
    • Rolling monthly release of SARA
    • Probabilistic assessment
    • Interactive dashboard
    • All the above is complicated and will take over a year to roll out fully.
  • ERCOT (Pete Warnken) gave a presentation on upcoming resource adequacy modeling projects for 2022.
    • Effective Load Carrying Capability!
      • ERCOT is looking to use it to estimate the capacity contribution of categories of resources (renewables, batteries)
      • Sensitivity analysis for resource penetration levels, alternative technology types,  grid location
      • Will use Astrape SERVM model
      • Target completion for 7/31/22 (will be future updates to SAWG.
      • Eventually rolled into a broad based CDR revision NPRR
    • Zonal Reliability Impact Study
      • Looking to move to a SERVM model that includes some zonal congestion
      • Important for ERCOT, but also will be used for NERC probabilistic assessment.
    • NERC ProbA study
      • Done every other year
      • For 2024 and 2026
  • ERCOT (Pete Warnken) gave an update on the Reserve Margin study and the CONE Study; they will both happen later this year or at the beginning of next year.
  • ERCOT (Clayton Stice) gave the annual report on distributed generation.  There were no surprises, but the amount (about 3GW) is substantial.

Discussed Issues

  • Mid Term Load Forecast
  • CDR
  • SARA
  • Reserve Margin Studies
  • Distributed Generation